一般社団法人 日本ショッピングセンター協会

Overview

Annual sales of existing shopping centers (SC) for 2010 fell by 2.0% against previous year and remained negative for a fourth consecutive year, although the negative margin improved by 4.8 points. Estimated SC sales totaled 27,411 billion yen, thereby remaining 1.2% below previous year's figure.
As the financial crisis of late 2008 continues to make its influence felt, the improvement of the negative margin sales proved insufficient to help sales exceed their previous year's level.
Although a last-minute rise in demand, generated in anticipation of the introduction of a higher tax rate on tobacco products and of amendments to the Eco-points system, brought a temporary sales recovery, a considerable number of factors, such as political turmoil, employment insecurity, extreme weather patterns as seen in this year's tropical summer temperatures and massive snowfall, all weighed down on the consumer's mind, resulting in a business year with clearly defined aspects of light and shade. The tendency among consumers to economize remains strong as ever, as are shopping patterns whereby both product price and quality are carefully scrutinized prior to purchase.

Although January sales suffered heavily from both the backlash that followed upon pre-season sales held at the end of previous year and sluggish sales among anchor tenants, the February-March period witnessed signs of recovery, with sales of spring clothing picking up during a spell of warm weather. In June, a number of SC took advantage of an early bargain season to boost sales. Tropical weather conditions for the August-September term led to a dismal performance of fashion-oriented SC focused on autumn apparel, but conversely proved a benefit to those tenants who extended their summer sales period and had stocked up on seasonal sundries. For the first time in 26 months, October could again boast positive growth, engendered by a sales wave created through last-minute demand in anticipation of amendments to the Eco-points system for electrical appliances. This underlying trend toward recovery continued also into November, when a number of SC featuring cinema-complexes, reported higher sales deriving mainly from the growing number of customers attracted by hit movies, and from boosted sales in the food and drink business, while at the same time those SC profiting from the larger inflow of customers created by large electrical appliances stores, saw the other tenants also benefit from the knock-on effect. Sales in December however, saw a total turnabout and ended a business year characterized by up-and-down fluctuations on a negative note.

Analysis based on sales results of SC by location reveals sales in suburban areas were -0.8% and improved by 5.6 points. Seen on an annual basis, results for 5 months - June and the August-November span - , exceeded those of the previous year. Central and peripheral areas managed positive sales growth in October but stayed negative for the remaining months. This reflects the beneficial impact of tenant replacement and aggressive sales promotion carried out in a number of nationwide SC chains.
Analysis based on sales results of SC by region reveals the Hokkaido region stood at -0.3, with central areas holding up well at 2.0%. SC sales in the Tohoku region were also good with a -0.7% result. The Kinki and Shikoku regions however, dropped to -3.0% and -2.8% respectively, with their central areas taking a battering ( Kinki at -5.0%, Chugoku at -4.9% and Shikoku at -5.1% ), and thus highlighting the serious slump in the Kansai sphere.
In addition, September saw the central areas of Kanto (-5.9%), Chubu (-9.6%) and Kinki (-9.0%) suffer their biggest loss margins of the year. Sluggish sales of autumn apparel, mainly in fashion buildings, due to the lingering summer heat, are seen as the main causal factor.
Although sales in 2010 managed to stage a recovery in the latter half of the year, this came about through the strong impact of temporary factors, such as the effect of public policymaking seen in the Eco-points system, and deflationary concerns continue to keep future prospects uncertain.

Notes

＊This survey has been compiled from information obtained after sampling 1,000 SC according to location and size from among 2,877 SC - the total number of SC at the end of December 2008.
＊This survey is based on the 514 SC samples obtained, the sample retrieval rate being 51.4 %.
＊Total annual sales of SC for 2010 are based on newly adapted SC standards and have been computed based on total number of 3,050 SC in existence at the end of December 2010.
＊The total annual sales amount had until 2009 been calculated according to the Old SC Standards. As since then two years have passed, we have taken the possibility to simultaneously compare and recalculate the 2010 sales data with those of the previous year on the basis of the Newly Adapted Standards for SC(hereunder： New Standards).

JCSC' s New Standards for Shopping Centers

Shopping centers planned and developed by developers should observe the following requirements:

1. The retail space covered by retail businesses should not be less than 1,500sq m.
2. Shopping centers tenants should include, apart from anchor tenants, at least 10 tenants.
3. As for anchor tenants, their area should not exceed 80% of the shopping center area. However, this restriction does not apply if the retail space of the retail businesses among the other tenants occupies 1,500 sq m or more.
4. An association such as a Tenant Board (Store Association) or the like should be in place in order to conduct activities of common interest such as advertising and jointly held special events.

＊Whereas the old standards required SC tenants to include at least 10 retail tenants, the new standards require SC tenants to include at least 10 tenants.

Change of Total Sales of Shopping Centers, Depart-ment Stores and Chain Stores compared with previous year

Term/Year/month (Number of SC)			S　　　　　C			Department Stores	Chain Stores
			Previously Established SC
			Total of SC	Tenants	Anchor Tenants
Year	2000	(185)	-3.4	-3.1	-3.7	-2.2	-5.1
	2001	(255)	-2.2	-1.4	-3.3	-0.4	-5.2
	2002	(328)	-2.1	-2.1	-2.1	-2.3	-2.1
	2003	(462)	-1.6	-0.8	-2.4	-2.8	-3.2
	2004	(522)	-1.7	-0.9	-2.9	-2.8	-3.5
	2005	(550)	0.3	1.5	-1.9	-0.2	-2.6
	2006	(523)	0.3	0.9	-0.7	-0.7	-2.7
	2007	(515)	-0.0	0.3	-0.6	-0.5	-1.4
	2008	(553)	-1.5	-1.1	-2.3	-4.3	-0.7
	2009	(507)	-6.8	-6.5	-7.4	-10.1	-4.3
	2010	(513)	-2.0	-1.7	-2.8	-3.1	-2.6
2010	Jan.～Mar.	(551)	-4.2	-3.6	-5.5	-4.9	-4.7
	Apr.～Jun.	(526)	-2.2	-1.7	-3.4	-4.0	-3.9
	Jul.～Sep.	(531)	-2.1	-2.1	-2.0	-3.1	-0.9
	Oct.～dec.	(535)	0.7	1.0	0.0		-0.9
2010	Jan.～Jun.	(488)	-3.3	-2.8	-4.4	-4.4	-4.3
2010	Jul.～dec.	(523)	-0.8	-0.7	-1.0
Month 2009	Jan.	(567)	-4.4	-3.6	-6.2	-9.1	-2.7
	Feb.	(570)	-7.5	-6.5	-9.4	-11.5	-5.4
	Mar.	(573)	-8.3	-7.6	-9.6	-13.1	-4.0
	Apr.	(567)	-5.6	-5.1	-6.8	-11.3	-3.7
	May.	(573)	-5.6	-5.2	-6.5	-12.3	-2.0
	Jun.	(562)	-6.6	-6.4	-6.9	-8.8	-4.4
	Jul.	(581)	-8.5	-8.3	-9.0	-11.7	-4.8
	Aug.	(538)	-8.3	-8.3	-8.3	-8.8	-3.4
	Sep.	(545)	-4.7	-3.8	-6.6	-7.6	-2.4
	Oct.	(524)	-7.6	-7.3	-8.3	-10.5	-5.2
	Nov.	(542)	-8.7	-7.7	-10.8	-11.8	-8.0
	Dec.	(557)	-3.4	-3.3	-3.5	-5.0	-5.0
Month 2010	Jan.	(557)	-5.3	-4.5	-7.1	-5.7	-4.9
	Feb.	(541)	-2.5	-2.1	-3.2	-5.4	-2.4
	Mar.	(546)	-4.4	-3.9	-5.6	-3.5	-6.6
	Apr.	(517)	-2.8	-2.4	-3.6	-3.7	-4.9
	May.	(539)	-2.4	-1.4	-4.6	-2.1	-5.3
	Jun.	(540)	-1.5	-1.1	-2.4	-6.0	-1.4
	Jul.	(537)	-2.0	-1.9	-2.3	-1.4	-1.2
	Aug.	(538)	-1.0	-0.7	-1.8	-3.2	-1.1
	Sep.	(537)	-2.9	-3.4	-1.8	-5.2	-0.3
	Oct.	(533)	1.9	2.4	0.9	0.6	-0.3
	Nov.	(534)	1.8	1.6	2.1	-0.5	-0.5
	Dec.	(538)	-1.3	-0.7	-2.6	-1.5	-1.6
Source			Japan Council of Shopping Centers			Japan Department Stores Association	Japan Chain Stores Association

 

Rate of Expansion in Sales of SC by Location and Type of Constituent member of SC

Constituent member of SC Location (Number of SC)			Total	Tenants	Anchor Tenants
Total		(514)	-2.0	-1.7	-2.8
Central Areas	Large Cities	(73)	-3.2	-3.3	-1.8
	Medium Cities	(71)	-3.1	-2.8	-3.7
	Small Cities	(30)	-4.2	-4.2	-4.2
	Sub Total	(174)	-3.3	-3.2	-3.7
Peripheral Areas		(124)	-2.5	-1.7	-4.2
Suburban Areas		(216)	-0.8	0.1	-2.0

(notes)

■Size of City
Large Cities ： Cities designated by government ordinance (Sapporo, Sendai, Chiba, Tokyo metropolis, Kawasaki, Yokohama, Nagoya, Kyoto, Osaka, Kobe, Hiroshima, Fukuoka, Kitakyushu)
Medium Cities ：Cities that have a population of more than 150,000, excluding above‐mentioned cities
Small Cities ：Cities that have a population of under 150,000

■Location （Divided by administrative district, but the explanation for area is tentative.）
Central Areas ：Central cities that are accumulated by commercial function of cities, towns, villages concerned
Peripheral Areas ：Areas that are around central areas and city function of commerce, administration, business, etc. exist moderately
Suburban Areas ：Areas that are in the suburbs and residential areas, farmlands, etc. are spread out

 

Rate of Expansion in Sales of SC by Location and Region

Region Location (Number of SC)		Total	Hokkaido	Tohoku	Kanto	Chubu	Hokuriku	kinki	Chugoku	Shikoku	Kyusyu・ Okinawa
Total	(514)	-2.0	-0.3	-0.7	-2.0	-1.5	-2.3	-3.0	-1.4	-2.8	-1.6
Central Areas	(174)	-3.3	2.0	-1.5	-2.9	-3.4	-3.9	-5.0	-4.9	-5.1	-4.0
Peripheral Areas	(124)	-2.5	-3.4	-0.7	-2.3	-2.7	-2.2	-3.7	-1.2	-5.9	-1.4
Suburban Areas	(216)	-0.8	-2.2	-0.3	-0.6	-0.4	-2.0	-1.6	0.1	-0.7	0.6
Number of SC		514	16	28	184	53	40	115	27	13	38

(notes)

■Region
Hokkaido ：　Hokkaido　
Tohoku ：　Aomori, Iwate, Miyagi, Akita, Yamagata and Fukushima Prefecture　
Kanto ：　Ibaraki, Tochigi, Gumma,Saitama and Chiba Prefecture, Tokyo metropolis, Kanagawa and Yamanashi Prefecture
Chubu ：　Nagano, Gifu, Shizuoka, Aichi and Mie Prefecture
Hokuriku ：　Niigata, Toyama, Ishikawa and Fukui Prefecture
Kinki ：　Shiga, Kyoto, Osaka, Hyogo, Nara and Wakayama Prefecture
Chugoku ：　Tottori, Shimane, Okayama, Hiroshima and Yamaguchi Prefecture
Shikoku ：　Tokushima, Kagawa, Ehime and Kochi Prefecture
Kyusyu･Okinawa ：　Fukuoka, Saga, Nagasaki, Kumamoto, Oita, Miyazaki, Kagoshima and Okinawa Prefecture

Reference:
Contact below for any inquires in respect of the Survey.
Mr. Kotaro Zenpo of the Research Department
e‐mail address: zenpoh@jcsc.or.jp

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