社団法人 日本ショッピングセンター協会

Outlook

October sales of previously established shopping centers remained negative for a second consecutive month scoring a -3.0% figure compared with the figure for the same month last year.

Increased consumption had been expected in the light of falling gasoline prices and the professional baseball championship celebration sales but negative factors such as the recession caused by falling stock prices and anxiety over corporate profits dented by the strong yen spoiled the consumer's appetite, resulting in a drastic fall in sales when compared with results for the same month last year.

Even with some SC seeing an increase in customers stimulated by lower gasoline prices, the bleak economic outlook on the other hand tended to hold down the per-consumer spending so that lower fuel prices ultimately did not positively affect total sales.

An additional negative factor proved to be the unusually warm weather nationwide which led to a slump in autumn and winter goods sales.

Notes

＊This survey has been compiled from information obtained after sampling 1,000 SC according to location and size from among 2,804 SC - the total number of SC at the end of December 2007.
＊This survey is based on the 582 SC samples obtained, the sample retrieval rate being 58.2%.
＊(Estimated) total sales of SC for October have been computed based on the total number of 2,847 SC in existence at the end of September 2008.

Change of Total Sales of Shopping Centers, Depart-ment Stores and Chain Stores compared with previous year

Term/Year/month (Number of SC)			S　　　　　C			Department Stores	Chain Stores
			Previously Established SC
			Total of SC	Tenants	Anchor Tenants
Year	2000	(185)	-3.4	-3.1	-3.7	-2.2	-5.1
	2001	(255)	-2.2	-1.4	-3.3	-0.4	-5.2
	2002	(328)	-2.1	-2.1	-2.1	-2.3	-2.1
	2003	(462)	-1.6	-0.8	-2.4	-2.8	-3.2
	2004	(522)	-1.7	-0.9	-2.9	-2.8	-3.5
	2005	(550)	0.3	1.5	-1.9	-0.2	-2.6
	2006	(523)	0.3	0.9	-0.7	-0.7	-2.7
	2007	(515)	-0.0	0.3	-0.6	-0.5	-1.4
2008	Jan.～Mar.	(557)	1.1	1.2	0.8	-1.0	0.4
	Apr.～Jun.	(553)	-2.7	-2.8	-2.5	-4.6	-0.9
Month 2007	Jan.	(600)	1.3	1.8	0.2	0.0	-2.4
	Feb.	(600)	1.3	1.7	0.5	1.7	-1.6
	Mar.	(572)	-1.2	-1.2	-1.0	-1.5	-1.5
	Apr.	(575)	-1.1	-0.8	-1.7	-1.3	-1.0
	May.	(556)	0.2	0.5	-0.4	-0.4	-0.6
	Jun.	(570)	2.4	3.9	-0.1	5.5	-1.5
	Jul.	(568)	-4.2	-4.4	-3.9	-4.3	-2.8
	Aug.	(570)	0.5	0.6	0.4	1.4	-0.5
	Sep.	(569)	-0.8	-0.5	-1.2	-2.5	-1.0
	Oct.	(556)	0.0	-0.1	0.3	-1.4	-1.1
	Nov.	(590)	0.7	1.1	0.0	0.9	-0.4
	Dec.	(591)	-0.8	-0.7	-1.0	-2.3	-1.8
Month 2008	Jan.	(592)	0.0	0.3	-0.5	-2.1	-1.7
	Feb.	(585)	0.8	0.4	1.4	0.9	1.9
	Mar.	(587)	2.3	2.6	1.6	-1.2	1.4
	Apr.	(575)	-2.5	-3.0	-1.5	-3.4	-0.8
	May.	(581)	-2.3	-2.1	-2.6	-2.7	-1.1
	Jun.	(592)	-2.9	-2.7	-3.1	-7.6	-0.9
	Jul.	(585)	0.3	0.2	0.5	-2.5	0.9
	Aug.	(572)	0.3	1.5	-2.1	-3.1	-1.0
	Sep.	(580)	-1.9	-0.8	-4.2	-4.7	-2.2
	Oct.	(582)	-3.0	-1.7	-5.6	-6.8	-
Source			Japan Council of Shopping Centers			Japan Department Stores Association	Japan Chain Stores Association

【comment】
Sales of anchor tenants were remarkably sluggish with -5.6%.
Sales of target commodities in supermarkets and GMS with their large percentage of anchor tenants were good as a result of sales at customer-friendly prices reflecting exchange gains created by the strong yen.
But consumers tend to remain cautious with regard to other commodities in view of the uncertain economic situation.

 

Rate of Expansion in Sales of SC by Location and Type of Constituent member of SC

Constituent member of SC Location (Number of SC)			Total	Tenants	Anchor Tenants
Total		(582)	-3.0	-1.7	-5.6
Central Areas	Large Cities	(76)	-2.4	-2.5	0.5
	Medium Cities	(88)	-4.6	-3.3	-7.0
	Small Cities	(34)	-3.5	0.5	-8.7
	Sub Total	(198)	-3.3	-2.5	-6.8
Peripheral Areas		(144)	-3.9	-1.1	-9.0
Suburban Areas		(240)	-2.2	-0.9	-3.7

【comment】
Although sales in all areas were negative, negative sales figures in suburban areas (-2.2%) were smaller compared to those in central areas (-3.3%) and peripheral areas (-3.9%).
In suburban areas the number of customers showed a tendency to recover due to falling gasoline prices.

(notes)

■Size of City
Large Cities ： Cities designated by government ordinance (Sapporo, Sendai, Chiba, Tokyo metropolis, Kawasaki, Yokohama, Nagoya, Kyoto, Osaka, Kobe, Hiroshima, Fukuoka, Kitakyushu)
Medium Cities ：Cities that have a population of more than 150,000, excluding above‐mentioned cities
Small Cities ：Cities that have a population of under 150,000

■Location （Divided by administrative district, but the explanation for area is tentative.）
Central Areas ：Central cities that are accumulated by commercial function of cities, towns, villages concerned
Peripheral Areas ：Areas that are around central areas and city function of commerce, administration, business, etc. exist moderately
Suburban Areas ：Areas that are in the suburbs and residential areas, farmlands, etc. are spread out

 

Rate of Expansion in Sales of SC by Location and Region

Region Location (Number of SC)		Total	Hokkaido	Tohoku	Kanto	Chubu	Hokuriku	kinki	Chugoku	Shikoku	Kyusyu・ Okinawa
Total	(582)	-3.0	2.4	-2.2	-3.6	-1.9	-3.4	-3.3	-4.8	-3.0	-0.5
Central Areas	(198)	-3.3	2.2	-1.2	-3.6	-1.3	-7.4	-3.7	-7.6	-4.8	-2.4
Peripheral Areas	(144)	-3.9	3.6	-8.8	-4.6	-3.7	-0.7	-4.2	-1.1	-8.1	-0.8
Suburban Areas	(240)	-2.2	0.1	-1.4	-2.6	-2.0	-3.2	-2.7	-2.7	-0.8	1.5
Number of SC		582	17	32	202	61	48	129	28	15	50

【comment】
The sales figures in Hokkaido proved the only exception with a positive 2.4% partly generated by new tenants attracted by SC renewals and partly resulting from relatively good sales in the central areas of cities designated by government ordinance.
The figure also reflected a rebound in relation to the record -6.0% figures over the same period last year.

(notes)

■Region
Hokkaido ：　Hokkaido　
Tohoku ：　Aomori, Iwate, Miyagi, Akita, Yamagata and Fukushima Prefecture　
Kanto ：　Ibaraki, Tochigi, Gumma,Saitama and Chiba Prefecture, Tokyo metropolis, Kanagawa and Yamanashi Prefecture
Chubu ：　Nagano, Gifu, Shizuoka, Aichi and Mie Prefecture
Hokuriku ：　Niigata, Toyama, Ishikawa and Fukui Prefecture
Kinki ：　Shiga, Kyoto, Osaka, Hyogo, Nara and Wakayama Prefecture
Chugoku ：　Tottori, Shimane, Okayama, Hiroshima and Yamaguchi Prefecture
Shikoku ：　Tokushima, Kagawa, Ehime and Kochi Prefecture
Kyusyu･Okinawa ：　Fukuoka, Saga, Nagasaki, Kumamoto, Oita, Miyazaki, Kagoshima and Okinawa Prefecture

Reference:
Contact below for any inquires in respect of the Survey.
Mr. Kotaro Zenpo of the Research Department
e‐mail address: zenpoh@jcsc.or.jp

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