社団法人 日本ショッピングセンター協会

Outlook

September sales of previously established shopping centers saw a -1.9% decline for the first time in three months compared with figures for the same month last year.

This came in spite of earlier than usual autumn goods sales and some local positive trends occasioned by SC renewals and events.

In addition to a slump in sales of luxury goods caused by globally plunging stock prices resulting from the collapse of some major US institutions, consumers tend to remain cautious in view of the steadily rising price index as exemplified by the steep food prices and SC sales have not yet succeeded in returning to a profitable base .

Moreover, eating and drinking businesses saw their turnover negatively affected by the need to raise prices as a result of higher basic material prices and by rising gasoline prices that translated into a dwindling number of customers.

As this month in addition also numbered one Saturday and one Sunday less than the same month last year, sales in all nine regions were negative.

Notes

＊This survey has been compiled from information obtained after sampling 1,000 SC according to location and size from among 2,804 SC - the total number of SC at the end of December 2007.
＊This survey is based on the 580 SC samples obtained, the sample retrieval rate being 58.0%.
＊(Estimated) total sales of SC for September have been computed based on the total number of 2,844 SC in existence at the end of August 2008.

Change of Total Sales of Shopping Centers, Depart-ment Stores and Chain Stores compared with previous year

Term/Year/month (Number of SC)			S　　　　　C			Department Stores	Chain Stores
			Previously Established SC
			Total of SC	Tenants	Anchor Tenants
Year	2000	(185)	-3.4	-3.1	-3.7	-2.2	-5.1
	2001	(255)	-2.2	-1.4	-3.3	-0.4	-5.2
	2002	(328)	-2.1	-2.1	-2.1	-2.3	-2.1
	2003	(462)	-1.6	-0.8	-2.4	-2.8	-3.2
	2004	(522)	-1.7	-0.9	-2.9	-2.8	-3.5
	2005	(550)	0.3	1.5	-1.9	-0.2	-2.6
	2006	(523)	0.3	0.9	-0.7	-0.7	-2.7
	2007	(515)	-0.0	0.3	-0.6	-0.5	-1.4
2008	Jan.～Mar.	(557)	1.1	1.2	0.8	-1.0	0.4
	Apr.～Jun.	(553)	-2.7	-2.8	-2.5	-4.6	-0.9
Month 2007	Jan.	(600)	1.3	1.8	0.2	0.0	-2.4
	Feb.	(600)	1.3	1.7	0.5	1.7	-1.6
	Mar.	(572)	-1.2	-1.2	-1.0	-1.5	-1.5
	Apr.	(575)	-1.1	-0.8	-1.7	-1.3	-1.0
	May.	(556)	0.2	0.5	-0.4	-0.4	-0.6
	Jun.	(570)	2.4	3.9	-0.1	5.5	-1.5
	Jul.	(568)	-4.2	-4.4	-3.9	-4.3	-2.8
	Aug.	(570)	0.5	0.6	0.4	1.4	-0.5
	Sep.	(569)	-0.8	-0.5	-1.2	-2.5	-1.0
	Oct.	(556)	0.0	-0.1	0.3	-1.4	-1.1
	Nov.	(590)	0.7	1.1	0.0	0.9	-0.4
	Dec.	(591)	-0.8	-0.7	-1.0	-2.3	-1.8
Month 2008	Jan.	(592)	0.0	0.3	-0.5	-2.1	-1.7
	Feb.	(585)	0.8	0.4	1.4	0.9	1.9
	Mar.	(587)	2.3	2.6	1.6	-1.2	1.4
	Apr.	(575)	-2.5	-3.0	-1.5	-3.4	-0.8
	May.	(581)	-2.3	-2.1	-2.6	-2.7	-1.1
	Jun.	(592)	-2.9	-2.7	-3.1	-7.6	-0.9
	Jul.	(585)	0.3	0.2	0.5	-2.5	0.9
	Aug.	(572)	0.3	1.5	-2.1	-3.1	-1.0
	Sep.	(580)	-1.9	-0.8	-4.2	-4.7	-2.2
Source			Japan Council of Shopping Centers			Japan Department Stores Association	Japan Chain Stores Association

【comment】
Both sales of anchor tenants and tenants were negative.
Anchor tenants had their worst results since February 2005 (sales of anchor tenants in February 2005 were -6.1%).

 

Rate of Expansion in Sales of SC by Location and Type of Constituent member of SC

Constituent member of SC Location (Number of SC)			Total	Tenants	Anchor Tenants
Total		(580)	-1.9	-0.8	-4.2
Central Areas	Large Cities	(76)	0.3	0.3	-2.5
	Medium Cities	(86)	-3.0	-2.6	-3.7
	Small Cities	(34)	-5.2	-1.6	-10.0
	Sub Total	(196)	-1.4	-0.7	-5.0
Peripheral Areas		(142)	-3.0	-0.8	-7.6
Suburban Areas		(242)	-1.7	-0.9	-2.7

【comment】
Sales in central areas of small cities were negative with -5.2% (sales of anchor tenants decreased by -10.0%).
Sales of SC with department stores and GMS as anchor tenants were remarkably sluggish. The large sales output of these negatively affected total SC sales.

(notes)

■Size of City
Large Cities ： Cities designated by government ordinance (Sapporo, Sendai, Chiba, Tokyo metropolis, Kawasaki, Yokohama, Nagoya, Kyoto, Osaka, Kobe, Hiroshima, Fukuoka, Kitakyushu)
Medium Cities ：Cities that have a population of more than 150,000, excluding above‐mentioned cities
Small Cities ：Cities that have a population of under 150,000

■Location （Divided by administrative district, but the explanation for area is tentative.）
Central Areas ：Central cities that are accumulated by commercial function of cities, towns, villages concerned
Peripheral Areas ：Areas that are around central areas and city function of commerce, administration, business, etc. exist moderately
Suburban Areas ：Areas that are in the suburbs and residential areas, farmlands, etc. are spread out

 

Rate of Expansion in Sales of SC by Location and Region

Region Location (Number of SC)		Total	Hokkaido	Tohoku	Kanto	Chubu	Hokuriku	kinki	Chugoku	Shikoku	Kyusyu・ Okinawa
Total	(580)	-1.9	-1.5	-0.6	-1.8	-1.1	-4.4	-1.7	-5.8	-3.4	-0.1
Central Areas	(196)	-1.4	-1.3	5.2	-1.5	-2.0	-2.4	-2.2	-4.3	-0.7	0.1
Peripheral Areas	(142)	-3.0	0.2	-12.1	-3.0	-5.3	-3.0	-0.7	3.1	-12.2	-5.6
Suburban Areas	(242)	-1.7	-6.2	-1.4	-1.4	0.3	-5.2	-1.9	-8.0	-3.1	3.1
Number of SC		580	18	34	202	60	45	126	30	15	50

【comment】
Sales in all nine regions were negative.
Sales in Chugoku regions were sluggish with -5.8%. Sales in suburban areas in particular hit a minimum of -8.0%, hinting at the negative influence of high fuel prices on customer flow.

(notes)

■Region
Hokkaido ：　Hokkaido　
Tohoku ：　Aomori, Iwate, Miyagi, Akita, Yamagata and Fukushima Prefecture　
Kanto ：　Ibaraki, Tochigi, Gumma,Saitama and Chiba Prefecture, Tokyo metropolis, Kanagawa and Yamanashi Prefecture
Chubu ：　Nagano, Gifu, Shizuoka, Aichi and Mie Prefecture
Hokuriku ：　Niigata, Toyama, Ishikawa and Fukui Prefecture
Kinki ：　Shiga, Kyoto, Osaka, Hyogo, Nara and Wakayama Prefecture
Chugoku ：　Tottori, Shimane, Okayama, Hiroshima and Yamaguchi Prefecture
Shikoku ：　Tokushima, Kagawa, Ehime and Kochi Prefecture
Kyusyu･Okinawa ：　Fukuoka, Saga, Nagasaki, Kumamoto, Oita, Miyazaki, Kagoshima and Okinawa Prefecture

Reference:
Contact below for any inquires in respect of the Survey.
Mr. Kotaro Zenpo of the Research Department
e‐mail address: zenpoh@jcsc.or.jp

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